Innovation Mechanism in Monetary Policy Forecasting: Unification of all Macroeconomic Puzzles in SVAR Model

Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks with External Instrument SVAR

We explore the use of external instrument SVAR to identify monetary policy shocks. We identify a forward guidance shock as the monetary shock component having zero instant impact on the policy rate. A contractionary forward guidance shock raises both future output and price level, stressing the relative importance of revealing policymakers’ view on future output and price level over committing ...

Some Apparent Puzzles for Contemporary Monetary Policy

Forecasting monetary policy rules in South Africa

This paper is the first one to: (i) provide in-sample estimates of linear and nonlinear Taylor rules, augmented with an indicator of financial stability, for the case of South Africa, and (ii) analyse the ability of linear and nonlinear monetary policy rule specifications, as well as nonparametric and semiparametric models, to forecast the nominal interest rate setting that describes the South ...

Learning, monetary policy rules, and macroeconomic stability

Several papers have documented a regime switch in US monetary policy from ‘passive’ and destabilizing in the pre-1979 period to ‘active’ and stabilizing afterwards. These studies typically work with DSGE models with rational expectations. This paper relaxes the assumption of rational expectations and allows for learning instead. Economic agents form expectations from simple models and update th...

Monetary Integration, Partisanship, and Macroeconomic Policy

Most of the current literature on macroeconomic policies focus on cyclical phenomena such as politically induced business cycles, and how short-sighted policies can be overcome through proper institutional design. This paper instead focuses on the lasting effects of macroeconomic policies on such “real” economic variables as unemployment and distribution, and we argue that traditional distribut...